Nearly two weeks since the commodity markets up in good shape, showing easing of macroeconomic worries, the rubber also rebounded, compared with the beginning has risen nearly 4,000 points, it can be said rally gratifying, but I believe that there is no obvious signs of improvement in the macroeconomic , this rise is not sustainable existence.
First, determine the trend of any commodity to be from a macroeconomic view, and this is also the recent past the most influential factor on the rubber. Despite nearly two weeks, with the fifth installment of rescue loans for Greece, Italy austerity program through the European debt crisis, the impact of the market is no longer so large, the United States the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits hit a banjo fitting new low since mid-April, China hike bad landing and the first half of China's GDP remained 9.6% growth, easing investor nervousness, global commodity markets and the stock market has emerged as a steady upward trend, it seems that another wave of bull market is about to begin, but we do not think this is true, because there is no indication that any real improvement in the economy. The U.S. unemployment rate remained high at 9.2%, the employment situation is not optimistic, the source of high pressure hose of the financial crisis the real estate market and there is no improvement in performance, and the threat of global economic development has intensified inflation, India's inflation rate rose to 9.44 in June % rate hike is expected resurgence, if interest rate increase of 25 basis points, and that impact on the market may be small, but if it is 50 basis points, then the market is likely to be a shock like last caused a significant commodities fell; Chinese domestic June CPI has once again hit a new high of 6.4%, but we think this will not be far from the peak, pork substantial surge in oil prices has begun to limit the end, there was an anti seasonal vegetables rapid rise, steel, copper and other commodities also continued to remain high, if once the season ends supply of fruits and vegetables, you can imagine what kind of situation occurs, the controllability of inflation still only on paper, there is no data can give evidence, it is near the end of , investors expected the CPI for July will certainly start again, this will give the market impact. In addition, economic growth has also been the market's attention, the HSBC China purchasing managers index was 50.1 PMI6 month, close to line ups and downs, July data will be released in late July, when there should not be greatly improved, for the market is not a small vibration, so the above circumstances, I believe that the macro side there is a big uncertainty, which will affect the commodity market to weaken.
Rubber fundamentals have not hydraulic couplings recently there was a great change in the supply of the season, but the market did not feel like the status quo, to the volume of the market is still small, spot prices firm, but the contrast on the downstream rubber case, still There are many doubts on the inside. First, from the producing countries, production data, and does not appear because of bad weather caused by tapping the amount of the reduction, high pressure hose of natural rubber producing countries to increase production to different extents; Second, the downstream demand is still not open, U.S. June auto sales resumed growth, but it is annualized December to the lowest level, Germany is the one bright spot in car sales, an increase of 10%, Italy, Britain, France and other countries in June car sales is to maintain a downward trend, while Japan has shrunk 23 percent in June, China has ended two consecutive months of negative growth, there has been 1.40 percent year on year increase, but because the future is still 7-8 months off-season car sales, car production and marketing and will not appear an obvious upgrade, so combination of these situation, downstream demand for natural rubber has not been very good improvement; Third, from the domestic situation, the car sales in the first half of the year increased by 3.35% , tire production in the first half increased by 4%, natural rubber imports in the first half increased by 4.6%, while the last of the rubber stocks still remain at historically low levels, only 16,543 tons of inventory, and there is a big gap compared to previous years , compared to the above three cases, I believe that there should be hidden inventory of rubber, can not stand alone more optimistic of the inventory to determine the demand and supply of rubber.
In summary, the fundamentals of the rubber itself is no big change in circumstances, the macro factors will affect the trend is the main cause, while the macroeconomic uncertainty makes up more difficult commodity markets, high pressure hose rubber want continue upward impact early high point is a very difficult thing.
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